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For the first time since it was created in 1948, the dreaded Inter-services Intelligence of Pakistan, known better as the ISI, has downgraded India from its enemy number 1 position. The ISI, which has been blamed by India for virtually every terror attack on its soil — the most recent being the
Mumbai’s 26/11 horror — now considers homegrown Islamist militants as its biggest enemy and threat.

In a recent internal assessment of security, the agency said it expected a majority of threats in the immediate future to come from Islamist militants, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday, quoting a senior ISI officer. The assessment, WSJ said, allocated a two-thirds likelihood of a major threat to Pakistan coming from militants rather from India or elsewhere.

The WSJ report, however, added it was unclear whether this fresh assessment of the ISI, largely staffed by active military officers, was fully endorsed by Pakistan’s military and civilian government.

Analysts in Pakistan have agreed with the report. “I am not surprised that the ISI has changed its strategic thinking,” commented Talat Masood, a retired general and analyst on defence and security issues.

Masood said that the report that appeared in the WSJ “is based on a widely held belief in the ISI that there has been a change of roles,” and that there was awareness in the ISI that some of its previous friends are now its sworn enemies. Another analyst Imtiaz Gul said that it had to do with ground realities.

“The ground realities have changed and have forced allies into becoming enemies,” he said. “Many of the militant groups that the Pakistani military worked with in the past have now turned against them. But others, especially those who are involved in activities in Indian

Kashmir remain within the ISI’s area of influence.”

Analysts also added it was one thing to recognise that there was a change in ground realities and quite another to act on this awareness. So far, the ISI seemed to have a soft spot for religious militant organisations, even those which have been involved in attacks against the military.

“There are games within games,” said analyst Ayesha Siddiqa. Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has said “home-grown” Islamist militants have overtaken the Indian Army as the greatest threat to national security.

A recent internal assessment of security by the ISI said the country expects a number of threats coming from Islamist militants, a senior ISI officer said.

The assessment allocates a “two-thirds” likelihood of a major threat to the state coming from militants rather than from India or elsewhere.

The ISI officer said Pakistan has about 150,000 soldiers fighting on its western border, with an additional 100,000 in reserve to rotate with those troops.

The country’s remaining 350,000 soldiers are focused on the border with India. “The direct threat from India has reduced considerably but that’s not to say it’s diminished entirely,” the officer was quoted as saying by the Wall Street Journal.Pakistan’s deadly floods

This is the first time since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947 that India hasn’t been viewed as the top threat.

“It’s earth shattering. That’s a remarkable change,” said Bruce Hoffman, a counter-terrorism specialist and professor at Georgetown University.

“It’s yet another ratcheting up of the Pakistanis’ recognition of not only their own internal problems but cooperation in the war on terrorism.”

Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the chief spokesman of the Pakistani military, said he wasn’t aware of the assessment and said India remained a threat. He, however, said it was the ISI’s role to draw up security assessments in the country.

The US, which gives around $2 billion in military aid to Pakistan annually, is particularly concerned about one of these groups, the Haqqani network.

The significance of the ISI’s assessment will hinge on exactly which militant groups it considers a threat, said Hoffman.

The media report said ISI’s new assessment is at odds with the projection of India inside Pakistan.

Politicians and the media regularly hold up India as working to undermine Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan. Others believe India is stealing water from Pakistan by building dams on shared rivers. And many Pakistanis blame India for funding a separatist insurgency in Balochistan province.

India has, however, denied all charges, the report added.

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